How will Orange County vote?
By Jon Gould
Orange County, California is one of America’s few truly “purple” counties, a bellwether jurisdiction where close congressional races could decide the fate of the next Congress.
With the general election three weeks away, experts at UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology are closely following developments and emerging trends among Orange County’s voters. We’re also preparing our post-election poll that will have answers and explanations for what happens on Election Day. Here are some of the key questions we’re tracking.
Who Will Turn Out To Vote?
In UCI’s poll after the March primary, Donald Trump had a 1% lead among Orange County residents. However, he trailed by 8% among likely voters. Can the Trump campaign drive the larger turnout he and other Republican candidates need to win? The end game is crucial.
Latino and Asian-American Voters on the Move?
UCI’s polling indicates that the plurality of white voters in Orange County is Republican, the plurality of Asian-American voters is independent, and the plurality of Latino voters is Democratic. However, that same polling suggests Asian-American communities are moving Left whereas Latino voters are becoming more skeptical of Democratic candidates. We’ll be analyzing the results from key precincts in Orange County for signs of partisan shifts.
Where Are The Gaps?
Pre-election polling presages a historic gender gap, as women tilt toward Harris and men favor Trump. So, too, there is an age divide. Those under 40 are much more supportive of Democrats, whereas Trump has consistently been leading among voters aged 55-64. However, the newest, more significant distinction is college education. Where the college-educated once favored Republican candidates, they now prefer the Democrats by a wide margin. In fact, college-education may be more predictive of a voter’s choice than race, ethnicity or income. Orange County has some of the highest levels of college education in California, and the college educated also vote in higher percentages than those with less education. This may be the new partisan divide.
Does Trump Hold Republicans?
In UCI’s earlier polling, strongly partisan Republicans were almost uniformly behind Trump and were the most enthusiastic of any group to vote. However, there was greater fall-off in support among other Republican voters than there was for Democrats. Do marginally partisan Republican voters defect to Harris or other Democrats? If so, they are likely to sway many races.
It’s the Economy and What Else?
Earlier in the year, OC residents uniformly said the economy was their No. 1 issue. However, abortion also ranked high for Democrats, whereas border security was prioritized for Republicans. In post-election polling, we’ll be diving into the issues and reasons that most affected the vote.
Control of Congress
Orange County boasts four competitive congressional races that may decide control of the next Congress. The margins look to be incredibly close, with most Republican candidates running several points ahead of Donald Trump in Orange County. Do candidate quality and strength of campaigning matter or are the local races referenda on national control? Our post-election poll will explore these factors.
Jon Gould is the dean of UC Irvine's School of Social Ecology and the director of the UCI-OC Poll.
Media Contact
Experts are available to discuss the election and help make sense of current polling, campaigning, and advertising. To reach us, contact Mimi Ko Cruz at 714-932-8589 or mkcruz@uci.edu.