Crime rates in Southern California predicted to fall in 2018

 

Forecast based on a model with 15 years of data.

A decades-long trend of falling crime rates is likely to continue in Southern California in 2018, according to the 2018 Southern California Crime Report.

The report, published by the Irvine Laboratory for the Study of Space and Crime, forecasts a decline in both violent and property crime in the region in 2018 based on 15 years of data.

“This forecasted decrease simply continues a long trend that has been occurring in the U.S. and the region over the last 25 years,” says Charis Kubrin, professor of criminology, law and society, and a co-director of the lab.

The forecast model projects that violent crime will fall an average of 17 percent, while property crime will fall an average of 6 percent across cities in the region in 2018. All told, 87 percent of cities will see decreases in violent crime, and 71 percent of cities will see decreases in property crime.

“Although we are quite confident in the general results of our forecast model, we caution that there can be variations due to idiosyncratic factors within any given city,” says John Hipp, also a professor of criminology, law and society, and the other co-director of the lab.

The report also includes information about how crime has changed in in the last 10 years in cities across the region.