Eduardo Alencar, left, and Bryant Jackson-Green are the authors of an award-winning article on Brazil's anti-corruption operation.
Study reveals unexpected impact of Brazil's Lava Jato anti-corruption operation
A study published in the Journal of White Collar and Corporate Crime has unveiled surprising effects of Brazil's Lava Jato (Car Wash) anti-corruption operation on the country's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). The research, conducted by UC Irvine alumni Eduardo Carvalho Nepomuceno Alencar and Bryant Jackson-Green, employed an innovative synthetic control method to analyze data from 135 countries over a 16-year period.
For their work on the research article, Alencar and Jackson-Green have been recognized with a 2025 Best Student Paper Award from the American Society of Criminology Division of White Collar and Corporate Crime.
“This recognition is not only a significant milestone in my academic career but also an affirmation of the values and education imparted by the School of Social Ecology,” said Alencar, the paper’s lead author.
Jackson-Green said the paper was his first and he called the award a great honor. “I’m so thankful for the experience and the mentoring I received from Eduardo.”
Their study, titled “Applying Synthetic Control Method to Estimate the Impact of the Lava Jato Operation on the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil,” found that the high-profile anti-corruption investigation, which began in 2014, had negative short-term effects on several key governance measures in Brazil.
Key findings include:
- Control of corruption decreased by 20 points (approximately 33%)
- Rule of law declined by 10 points (18%)
- Regulatory quality reduced by 15 points (27%)
The research showed no significant impact on government effectiveness, political stability, and voice and accountability.
“While these results may seem counterintuitive, they highlight the complex nature of large-scale anti-corruption efforts,” Alencar explained. “The initial negative impact on governance indicators could be attributed to increased awareness and reporting of corruption, rather than an actual increase in corrupt practices.”
The study also suggests a potential turning point in 2017-2018, with slight improvements observed in control of corruption and rule of law measures. However, the long-term effects remain to be seen.
Alencar said the research provides valuable insights for policymakers and anti-corruption efforts worldwide, demonstrating the need for comprehensive reforms in political, judicial, administrative, and tax systems to effect lasting change in governance and corruption control.
The study's innovative use of the synthetic control method offers a new approach to analyzing the impact of anti-corruption measures on governance, contributing significantly to the criminological literature, particularly in the Global South.
In a recent Brazilian newspaper story, Alencar emphasized the importance of conducting research on corruption crimes in an impartial and evidence-based manner, free from political bias.
“It is crucial that studies in this area are guided solely by data and objective analysis, so we can better understand the challenges faced by societies around the world,” he said.
“Eduardo Alencar's research clearly illustrates the complexity and challenges we face in the fight against corruption,” said Brazilian Congresswoman Adriana Ventura, president of the Parliamentary Front for Inspection, Integrity and Transparency (FIT). “His work underscores the need for comprehensive reforms in our political, judicial, administrative and tax systems to truly transform our governance and corruption control. Eduardo has been a valuable contributor to FIT, a non-partisan initiative that aims to work together with society toward a fairer, more transparent and honest Brazil. At FIT, we recognize the importance of evidence-based approaches, like the one used by Alencar, to inform our policies and strengthen our democracy.”
About Alencar
Alencar is a specialist in the regulation of public telecommunications services and currently serves as an advisor to Congresswoman Ventura.
He earned his master’s degree in social ecology in 2020 and his Ph.D. in social ecology in 2022. He also has an international executive MBA from the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) and a Global Change Agents Certificate from Harvard University. He has an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Brasília and has a postgraduate degree in business from FGV.
About Jackson-Green
Jackson-Green is a doctoral candidate, expecting to complete his Ph.D. in social ecology later this year. He earned a J.D. from UC Irvine last year, a master’s degree in public policy and administration from Northwestern University in 2019 and a bachelor’s degree in political science in 2013.